ATP tennis predict — Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 3. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Alex Michelsen

USA

62.94%

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

37.06%

Average Odds

1.59 / 2.34

Market probability

59.54% / 40.46%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1842 vs 1670), a higher Elo rating (1864 vs 1843) and a stronger serve (64.3% vs 55.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1864.2 Elo 1842.5

1841.7 Elo (surface) 1670.1

102 Wins 33

74 Wins (surface) 14

10 Last 15 form 12

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.076 Dominance ratio 1.071

46 Rank 39

22.0 Age 21.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Daniel Merida Aguilar

1st Serve In %

58.7%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

54.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

31.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Daniel Merida Aguilar

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

56.9%

29.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen 1 – 1 Daniel Merida Aguilar

Hard US Open · 2026-09-05

3. round

Alex Michelsen #46

Daniel Merida Aguilar #39

7-6 6-4 6-3

6 Aces 8

1 Double Faults 7

92 Service Points 109

61 First Serve In 65

47 First Serve Won 42

19 Second Serve Won 24

4 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 7

33 Winners 40

14 Unforced Errors 36

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-07

3. round

Daniel Merida Aguilar #63

Alex Michelsen #42

6-4 6-7 6-1

6 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 3

93 Service Points 97

55 First Serve In 59

44 First Serve Won 42

16 Second Serve Won 13

4 Break Points Saved 7

6 Break Points Faced 12

33 Winners 34

34 Unforced Errors 43

3.1 Average Odds 1.4

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2026-03-04

R128

Alex Michelsen #44

Daniel Merida Aguilar #139

6-3 6-4

6 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 3

55 Service Points 56

41 First Serve In 41

32 First Serve Won 23

9 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 1

1 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Prediction