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Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Gea — Prediction

Challenger Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Alex Michelsen

USA

69.52%

Arthur Gea

France

30.48%

Average Odds

1.32  /  3.19

Market probability

70.73%  /  29.27%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1782 vs 1663), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1768 vs 1663) and a stronger return game (37.8% vs 35.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1781.6 Elo 1663.1
1768.1 Elo (surface) 1662.6
49 Wins (Challenger) 67
34 Wins (surface) 21
10 Last 15 form 10
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.966 Dominance ratio 0.861
44 Rank 129
21.9 Age 21.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Arthur Gea

1st Serve In %

58.7%
54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%
68.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%
50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%
29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%
50.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.54
0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34
0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%
59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%
69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%
44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%
27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%
48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.41
0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27
0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Arthur Gea

Break Points Saved %

67.1%
62.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%
41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%
45.3%

Break Points Converted %

56.9%
36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen and Arthur Gea have never played each other.

Alex Michelsen — Last 10

L W W W W L W L W W

Arthur Gea — Last 10

L W W W L W W W W W