ATP tennis predict — Alex Michelsen vs Aidan Mayo

Challenger Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Alex Michelsen

USA

75.15%

Aidan Mayo

USA

24.85%

Average Odds

- / -

Market probability

- / -

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1782 vs 1538), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1768 vs 1531) and a stronger return game (37.8% vs 35.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1781.6 Elo 1537.6

1768.1 Elo (surface) 1531.3

49 Wins (Challenger) 82

34 Wins (surface) 69

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.966 Dominance ratio 0.915

44 Rank 634

21.9 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Aidan Mayo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Aidan Mayo

1st Serve In %

58.7%

55.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

71.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

34.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Aidan Mayo

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

61.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

69.4%

Break Points Converted %

56.9%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen 0 – 0 Aidan Mayo

Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 2026-07-22

1. round

Alex Michelsen #44

Aidan Mayo #634

6-3 6-7 7-6

5 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 4

113 Service Points 110

56 First Serve In 63

39 First Serve Won 49

36 Second Serve Won 22

3 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alex Michelsen vs Aidan Mayo — Prediction