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Alex Michelsen vs Adrian Mannarino — Prediction

ATP Hard Washington · R16

Predicted probability

Alex Michelsen

USA

85.88%

Adrian Mannarino

France

14.12%

Average Odds

1.33  /  3.27

Market probability

71.09%  /  28.91%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1835 vs 1696), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1827 vs 1744) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1835.3 Elo 1695.9
1826.6 Elo (surface) 1743.5
96 Wins 412
68 Wins (surface) 280
8 Last 15 form 6
2 Head-to-head wins 1
1.046 Dominance ratio 1.054
40 Rank 47
21.9 Age 38.1
right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Adrian Mannarino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Adrian Mannarino

1st Serve In %

58.7%
54.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%
70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%
47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%
25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%
52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.54
0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34
0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%
56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%
72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%
49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%
33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%
53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.41
0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27
0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Adrian Mannarino

Break Points Saved %

67.1%
53.3%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%
35.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%
59.6%

Break Points Converted %

56.9%
47.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen 2 – 1 Adrian Mannarino

Hard Washington · 2026-07-30

R16

Alex Michelsen #40

Adrian Mannarino #47

6-4 7-6
11 Aces 1
3 Double Faults 3
78 Service Points 65
43 First Serve In 35
34 First Serve Won 26
21 Second Serve Won 18
7 Break Points Saved 2
8 Break Points Faced 4
24 Winners 19
37 Unforced Errors 29
1.3 Average Odds 3.3
Clay Houston · 2025-03-31

R16

Alex Michelsen #34

Adrian Mannarino #144

6-7(0) 6-4 6-2
3 Aces 1
3 Double Faults 3
95 Service Points 99
62 First Serve In 69
38 First Serve Won 39
19 Second Serve Won 14
5 Break Points Saved 9
9 Break Points Faced 16
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Grass Mallorca · 2024-06-24

R16

Alex Michelsen #62

Adrian Mannarino #22

7-6(5) 6-4
4 Aces 6
0 Double Faults 4
72 Service Points 77
50 First Serve In 47
37 First Serve Won 32
11 Second Serve Won 15
2 Break Points Saved 4
4 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Grass Newport · 2023-07-17

F

Adrian Mannarino #38

Alex Michelsen #190

6-2 6-4
3 Aces 2
3 Double Faults 3
49 Service Points 54
31 First Serve In 34
25 First Serve Won 21
11 Second Serve Won 8
0 Break Points Saved 2
1 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Alex Michelsen — Last 10

L W W W W L W L W W

Adrian Mannarino — Last 10

L W L W L L L L W L