ATP tennis predict — Alex Marti Pujolras vs Stefano Napolitano

Challenger Clay Biella challenger · 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Alex Marti Pujolras

Spain

34.78%

Stefano Napolitano

Italy

65.22%

Average Odds

2.42 / 1.52

Market probability

38.58% / 61.42%

Why This Prediction?

Stefano Napolitano is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1631 vs 1559), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1657 vs 1565) and more wins on clay courts (113 vs 45).

Player Comparison

1559.0 Elo 1631.4

1564.8 Elo (surface) 1657.2

45 Wins (Challenger) 198

45 Wins (surface) 113

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.000 Dominance ratio 0.889

506 Rank 283

27.6 Age 31.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Marti Pujolras

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Stefano Napolitano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Marti Pujolras Stefano Napolitano

1st Serve In %

58.2%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.9%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.4%

55.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

33.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

47.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.47

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Marti Pujolras Stefano Napolitano

Break Points Saved %

45.8%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.4%

34.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Marti Pujolras 0 – 0 Stefano Napolitano

Clay Biella challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Stefano Napolitano #283

Alex Marti Pujolras #506

6-4 6-3

1 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

19 First Serve Won 31

9 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 9

8 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Alex Marti Pujolras vs Stefano Napolitano — Prediction