ATP tennis predict — Alex Degabriele vs Mika Brunold

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Alex Degabriele

Malta

22.12%

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

77.88%

Average Odds

11.16 / 1.03

Market probability

8.45% / 91.55%

Why This Prediction?

Mika Brunold is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1519 vs 1500), better recent form (9 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0) and more career match wins (59 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1741.1 Elo 1575.7

1500 Elo (surface) 1519.0

0 Wins (Challenger) 59

0 Wins (surface) 32

0 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.063 Dominance ratio 1.063

- Rank 415

21.8 Age 21.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Degabriele

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Mika Brunold

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 16W–3L · 84.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Degabriele Mika Brunold

1st Serve In %

—

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

63.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

47.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

38.8%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.9%

67.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

57.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Degabriele Mika Brunold

Break Points Saved %

—

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Degabriele 0 – 0 Mika Brunold

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-26

qualification - 1. round

Mika Brunold #383

Alex Degabriele #-

6-1 6-2

1 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

58 Service Points 45

38 First Serve In 35

17 First Serve Won 27

10 Second Serve Won 5

7 Break Points Saved 2

12 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.0 Average Odds 11.2

Alex Degabriele vs Mika Brunold — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Alex Degabriele — Last 7

Mika Brunold — Last 10