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Alex De Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Prediction

ATP Hard Washington · 1. round

Predicted probability

Alex De Minaur

Australia

60.36%

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

39.64%

Average Odds

1.66  /  2.19

Market probability

56.88%  /  43.12%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1898 vs 1852), a stronger return game (42.2% vs 32.1% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1861 vs 1826).

Player Comparison

1897.7 Elo 1851.8
1861.2 Elo (surface) 1826.4
348 Wins 421
252 Wins (surface) 249
11 Last 15 form 10
2 Head-to-head wins 14
1.131 Dominance ratio 0.959
6 Rank 51
27.4 Age 28.0
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–3L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Stefanos Tsitsipas

1st Serve In %

55.5%
60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%
73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%
46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.4%
25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.1%
45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.44
0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32
0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.2%
59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%
80.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%
62.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%
29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%
47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.32
0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31
0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Stefanos Tsitsipas

Break Points Saved %

62.7%
59.2%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%
50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.1%
75.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%
36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex De Minaur 2 – 14 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Hard Washington · 2026-07-29

1. round

Alex De Minaur #6

Stefanos Tsitsipas #51

6-4 3-6 6-3
4 Aces 8
8 Double Faults 3
91 Service Points 89
57 First Serve In 44
45 First Serve Won 29
15 Second Serve Won 25
5 Break Points Saved 3
7 Break Points Faced 6
15 Winners 24
41 Unforced Errors 60
1.7 Average Odds 2.2
Hard Miami Masters · 2026-03-18

R64

Stefanos Tsitsipas #51

Alex De Minaur #6

6-3 7-6(3)
5 Aces 2
1 Double Faults 2
56 Service Points 70
40 First Serve In 43
39 First Serve Won 28
9 Second Serve Won 16
2 Break Points Saved 4
2 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Rome Masters · 2024-05-06

R16

Stefanos Tsitsipas #8

Alex De Minaur #11

6-1 6-2
0 Aces 0
0 Double Faults 1
39 Service Points 41
27 First Serve In 27
20 First Serve Won 13
10 Second Serve Won 5
1 Break Points Saved 3
2 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Acapulco · 2024-02-26

QF

Alex De Minaur #9

Stefanos Tsitsipas #12

1-6 6-3 6-3
2 Aces 5
1 Double Faults 8
74 Service Points 85
41 First Serve In 45
26 First Serve Won 26
13 Second Serve Won 18
2 Break Points Saved 6
7 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Los Cabos · 2023-07-31

F

Stefanos Tsitsipas #5

Alex De Minaur #19

6-3 6-4
2 Aces 1
0 Double Faults 3
48 Service Points 54
28 First Serve In 29
23 First Serve Won 21
11 Second Serve Won 8
0 Break Points Saved 5
2 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Barcelona · 2023-04-17

QF

Stefanos Tsitsipas #5

Alex De Minaur #19

6-4 6-2
1 Aces 0
0 Double Faults 5
51 Service Points 57
29 First Serve In 27
21 First Serve Won 20
16 Second Serve Won 14
1 Break Points Saved 6
1 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Miami Masters · 2022-03-21

R32

Stefanos Tsitsipas #5

Alex De Minaur #28

6-4 6-3
8 Aces 2
1 Double Faults 3
57 Service Points 76
34 First Serve In 50
28 First Serve Won 32
16 Second Serve Won 13
3 Break Points Saved 4
3 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Rotterdam · 2022-02-07

QF

Stefanos Tsitsipas #4

Alex De Minaur #34

6-4 6-4
4 Aces 2
0 Double Faults 4
55 Service Points 82
33 First Serve In 53
27 First Serve Won 34
12 Second Serve Won 14
2 Break Points Saved 9
3 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2021-10-04

R16

Stefanos Tsitsipas #3

Alex De Minaur #27

6-7(3) 7-6(3) 6-2
7 Aces 1
1 Double Faults 3
106 Service Points 108
55 First Serve In 62
36 First Serve Won 39
33 Second Serve Won 24
2 Break Points Saved 5
5 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Barcelona · 2021-04-19

R16

Stefanos Tsitsipas #5

Alex De Minaur #25

7-5 6-3
5 Aces 1
1 Double Faults 0
70 Service Points 52
49 First Serve In 29
37 First Serve Won 20
11 Second Serve Won 14
2 Break Points Saved 2
3 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Atp Cup · 2021-02-02

RR

Stefanos Tsitsipas #6

Alex De Minaur #23

6-3 7-5
4 Aces 1
1 Double Faults 0
66 Service Points 61
38 First Serve In 33
28 First Serve Won 22
18 Second Serve Won 14
3 Break Points Saved 2
4 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Paris Masters · 2019-10-28

R16

Stefanos Tsitsipas #7

Alex De Minaur #18

6-3 6-4
11 Aces 2
0 Double Faults 2
45 Service Points 58
34 First Serve In 36
29 First Serve Won 23
9 Second Serve Won 10
1 Break Points Saved 2
2 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard NextGen Finals · 2018-11-05

F

Stefanos Tsitsipas #15

Alex De Minaur #31

2-4 4-1 4-3(3) 4-3(3)
10 Aces 4
0 Double Faults 1
75 Service Points 74
52 First Serve In 44
40 First Serve Won 30
14 Second Serve Won 17
2 Break Points Saved 7
3 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Tokyo · 2018-10-01

R16

Stefanos Tsitsipas #15

Alex De Minaur #38

6-3 5-7 6-1
4 Aces 3
1 Double Faults 3
82 Service Points 107
40 First Serve In 59
31 First Serve Won 30
21 Second Serve Won 26
3 Break Points Saved 14
6 Break Points Faced 20
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Portoroz CH · 2017-08-07

R32

Stefanos Tsitsipas #168

Alex De Minaur #184

6-2 6-3
3 Aces 0
5 Double Faults 3
53 Service Points 49
32 First Serve In 28
27 First Serve Won 15
9 Second Serve Won 10
0 Break Points Saved 1
1 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Grass Surbiton CH · 2017-06-05

Q1

Alex De Minaur #240

Stefanos Tsitsipas #205

7-6(5) 6-1
2 Aces 1
3 Double Faults 4
63 Service Points 67
32 First Serve In 41
26 First Serve Won 27
18 Second Serve Won 9
3 Break Points Saved 8
4 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Istanbul · 2017-05-01

Q1

Stefanos Tsitsipas #207

Alex De Minaur #228

6-4 6-2
2 Aces 1
2 Double Faults 1
51 Service Points 58
26 First Serve In 38
20 First Serve Won 24
18 Second Serve Won 8
2 Break Points Saved 1
2 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Alex De Minaur — Last 10

L W L W W L W L W W

Stefanos Tsitsipas — Last 10

L W W W L W L W L W