ATP tennis predict — Alex De Minaur vs Rei Sakamoto

ATP Hard Shanghai · 3. round 07:30

Predicted probability

Alex De Minaur

Australia

65.37%

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

34.63%

Average Odds

1.38 / 3.00

Market probability

68.49% / 31.51%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2122 vs 1881), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2082 vs 1845) and more wins on hard courts (264 vs 18).

Player Comparison

2122.0 Elo 1881.5

2081.9 Elo (surface) 1845.4

360 Wins 22

264 Wins (surface) 18

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.896 Dominance ratio 0.962

9 Rank 137

27.6 Age 20.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Rei Sakamoto

1st Serve In %

56.3%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.0%

74.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.2%

23.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.2%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.2%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%

75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Rei Sakamoto

Break Points Saved %

65.7%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

30.4%

47.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.1%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex De Minaur and Rei Sakamoto have never played each other.

Alex De Minaur vs Rei Sakamoto — Prediction