ATP tennis predict — Alex De Minaur vs Mariano Navone

ATP Hard Beijing · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Alex De Minaur

Australia

72.95%

Mariano Navone

Argentina

27.05%

Average Odds

1.20 / 4.43

Market probability

78.69% / 21.31%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2097 vs 1963), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2061 vs 1833) and more wins on hard courts (259 vs 15).

Player Comparison

2096.8 Elo 1962.6

2060.6 Elo (surface) 1832.8

355 Wins 67

259 Wins (surface) 15

10 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.896 Dominance ratio 1.081

10 Rank 45

27.6 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Mariano Navone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Mariano Navone

1st Serve In %

55.5%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.4%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.1%

45.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.2%

70.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%

62.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%

56.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%

37.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.05

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Mariano Navone

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

28.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.1%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

50.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex De Minaur 1 – 0 Mariano Navone

Hard Paris Masters · 2024-10-28

R64

Alex De Minaur #10

Mariano Navone #45

7-5 6-1

7 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 3

64 Service Points 49

30 First Serve In 27

22 First Serve Won 19

22 Second Serve Won 6

5 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alex De Minaur vs Mariano Navone — Prediction