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Alex De Minaur vs Karen Khachanov — Prediction

ATP Hard Shanghai · R16 06:00

Predicted probability

Alex De Minaur

Australia

66.00%

Karen Khachanov

Russia

34.00%

Average Odds

1.66  /  2.19

Market probability

56.88%  /  43.12%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2126 vs 2005), a stronger return game (40.5% vs 38.1% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2086 vs 1943).

Player Comparison

2125.8 Elo 2005.3
2086.3 Elo (surface) 1943.4
361 Wins 351
265 Wins (surface) 226
11 Last 15 form 9
2 Head-to-head wins 2
0.896 Dominance ratio 0.970
9 Rank 27
27.6 Age 30.4
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 10W–3L · 76.9%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–2L · 80.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Karen Khachanov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Karen Khachanov

1st Serve In %

56.8%
60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.4%
72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%
44.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.9%
25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.4%
51.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.45
0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20
0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.2%
54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%
72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%
53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%
29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%
50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.32
0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31
0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Karen Khachanov

Break Points Saved %

69.1%
61.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.4%
50.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.1%
68.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%
33.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex De Minaur 2 – 2 Karen Khachanov

Hard Paris Masters · 2025-10-27

R16

Alex De Minaur #6

Karen Khachanov #14

6-2 6-2
2 Aces 3
2 Double Faults 1
52 Service Points 45
28 First Serve In 32
22 First Serve Won 21
15 Second Serve Won 3
3 Break Points Saved 1
3 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Vienna · 2024-10-21

SF

Karen Khachanov #24

Alex De Minaur #10

6-2 6-4
9 Aces 4
0 Double Faults 2
52 Service Points 58
36 First Serve In 35
28 First Serve Won 21
9 Second Serve Won 9
2 Break Points Saved 2
3 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Dubai · 2022-02-21

R32

Karen Khachanov #26

Alex De Minaur #32

6-3 6-7(1) 7-5
10 Aces 6
5 Double Faults 2
121 Service Points 116
81 First Serve In 69
58 First Serve Won 41
13 Second Serve Won 23
8 Break Points Saved 7
13 Break Points Faced 14
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Us Open · 2020-08-31

R32

Alex De Minaur #28

Karen Khachanov #16

6-4 0-6 4-6 6-3 6-1
8 Aces 6
6 Double Faults 5
141 Service Points 137
81 First Serve In 90
56 First Serve Won 52
27 Second Serve Won 28
5 Break Points Saved 7
10 Break Points Faced 13
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Alex De Minaur — Last 10

W W L W W W W W L W

Karen Khachanov — Last 10

W W L W W L W W W W