ATP tennis predict — Alex De Minaur vs James Duckworth

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 01:40

Predicted probability

Alex De Minaur

Australia

80.96%

James Duckworth

Australia

19.04%

Average Odds

1.10 / 6.88

Market probability

86.22% / 13.78%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1896 vs 1663), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1861 vs 1696) and a stronger return game (43.9% vs 33.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1896.3 Elo 1662.6

1861.2 Elo (surface) 1696.4

350 Wins 168

254 Wins (surface) 112

10 Last 15 form 6

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.301 Dominance ratio 1.082

7 Rank 86

27.5 Age 34.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

James Duckworth

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 7W–6L · 53.8%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur James Duckworth

1st Serve In %

55.5%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.4%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.1%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.2%

52.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%

77.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%

56.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur James Duckworth

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

64.4%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

34.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.1%

84.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex De Minaur 2 – 0 James Duckworth

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-05

2. round

Alex De Minaur #7

James Duckworth #86

6-2 7-6

7 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 3

79 Service Points 74

37 First Serve In 40

26 First Serve Won 27

18 Second Serve Won 23

5 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 6

24 Winners 15

47 Unforced Errors 18

1.1 Average Odds 6.9

Grass Wimbledon · 2024-07-01

R128

Alex De Minaur #9

James Duckworth #81

7-6(1) 7-6(3) 7-6(4)

16 Aces 9

7 Double Faults 4

124 Service Points 173

63 First Serve In 100

51 First Serve Won 64

30 Second Serve Won 34

4 Break Points Saved 16

7 Break Points Faced 19

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Atlanta · 2022-07-25

R16

Alex De Minaur #30

James Duckworth #62

6-4 6-4

4 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 0

59 Service Points 51

31 First Serve In 27

26 First Serve Won 19

14 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 5