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Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz — Prediction

ATP Hard Beijing · SF 09:40

Predicted probability

Alex De Minaur

Australia

61.03%

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

38.97%

Average Odds

1.69  /  2.16

Market probability

56.10%  /  43.90%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2115 vs 2058), a stronger return game (40.5% vs 37.7% of return points won) and a lighter recent match load (79 vs 86 games played recently).

Player Comparison

2115.3 Elo 2058.3
2077.2 Elo (surface) 1987.5
358 Wins 269
262 Wins (surface) 181
10 Last 15 form 11
3 Head-to-head wins 1
0.896 Dominance ratio 0.990
10 Rank 41
27.6 Age 29.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 10W–3L · 76.9%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–4L · 71.4%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Hubert Hurkacz

1st Serve In %

53.6%
57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.3%
64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.6%
47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%
29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.4%
43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.40
0.68

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23
0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.2%
60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%
69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%
52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%
32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%
47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.32
0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31
0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Hubert Hurkacz

Break Points Saved %

63.8%
60.7%

Break Points Converted %

30.6%
35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.1%
60.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%
41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex De Minaur 3 – 1 Hubert Hurkacz

Hard United Cup · 2026-01-05

QF

Alex De Minaur #6

Hubert Hurkacz #83

6-4 4-6 6-4
6 Aces 19
1 Double Faults 0
104 Service Points 85
57 First Serve In 63
47 First Serve Won 47
25 Second Serve Won 12
10 Break Points Saved 2
11 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2025-03-05

R32

Alex De Minaur #10

Hubert Hurkacz #22

6-4 6-0
2 Aces 7
3 Double Faults 1
49 Service Points 43
20 First Serve In 25
16 First Serve Won 14
19 Second Serve Won 7
1 Break Points Saved 0
1 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Madrid Masters · 2019-05-06

R64

Hubert Hurkacz #52

Alex De Minaur #27

6-3 6-4
5 Aces 3
0 Double Faults 0
49 Service Points 54
30 First Serve In 36
26 First Serve Won 26
14 Second Serve Won 6
0 Break Points Saved 3
0 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Atlanta · 2018-07-23

R32

Alex De Minaur #68

Hubert Hurkacz #125

1-6 7-6(0) 7-6(5)
2 Aces 9
1 Double Faults 8
85 Service Points 112
48 First Serve In 68
28 First Serve Won 49
28 Second Serve Won 22
1 Break Points Saved 7
5 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Alex De Minaur — Last 10

W W W W L W L W W L

Hubert Hurkacz — Last 10

W W W L W W W W L W