ATP tennis predict — Alex De Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt

ATP Hard Washington · R16

Predicted probability

Alex De Minaur

Australia

79.70%

Cruz Hewitt

Australia

20.30%

Average Odds

1.07 / 8.06

Market probability

88.28% / 11.72%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1906 vs 1599), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1871 vs 1603) and a stronger serve (69.6% vs 61.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1905.9 Elo 1599.1

1871.2 Elo (surface) 1602.7

349 Wins 3

253 Wins (surface) 3

11 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.186 Dominance ratio 0.847

6 Rank 612

27.4 Age 17.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Cruz Hewitt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Cruz Hewitt

1st Serve In %

55.5%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%

44.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.4%

26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.1%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.2%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Cruz Hewitt

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.1%

65.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex De Minaur 0 – 0 Cruz Hewitt

Hard Washington · 2026-07-30

R16

Alex De Minaur #6

Cruz Hewitt #612

6-2 6-3

6 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 3

46 Service Points 47

28 First Serve In 27

21 First Serve Won 15

9 Second Serve Won 8

2 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 7

14 Winners 9

17 Unforced Errors 25

1.1 Average Odds 8.1

Alex De Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt — Prediction