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Alex De Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima — Prediction

ATP Hard Washington · QF

Predicted probability

Alex De Minaur

Australia

62.95%

Brandon Nakashima

USA

37.05%

Average Odds

1.57  /  2.36

Market probability

60.05%  /  39.95%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1909 vs 1798), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1875 vs 1785) and a stronger return game (44.6% vs 36.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1908.7 Elo 1797.7
1875.0 Elo (surface) 1785.3
350 Wins 172
254 Wins (surface) 115
11 Last 15 form 10
1 Head-to-head wins 2
1.312 Dominance ratio 1.118
6 Rank 33
27.4 Age 25.0
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–3L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Brandon Nakashima

1st Serve In %

55.5%
59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%
77.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%
52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.4%
24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.1%
51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.44
0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32
0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.2%
66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%
73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%
54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%
29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%
49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.32
0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31
0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Brandon Nakashima

Break Points Saved %

62.7%
73.2%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%
37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.1%
63.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%
46.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex De Minaur 1 – 2 Brandon Nakashima

Hard Washington · 2026-07-31

QF

Brandon Nakashima #33

Alex De Minaur #6

7-6 6-4
5 Aces 10
2 Double Faults 3
65 Service Points 93
35 First Serve In 54
23 First Serve Won 45
19 Second Serve Won 15
2 Break Points Saved 6
4 Break Points Faced 7
23 Winners 31
28 Unforced Errors 40
2.4 Average Odds 1.6
Grass Queen's Club · 2026-06-19

QF

Brandon Nakashima #32

Alex De Minaur #6

7-5 6-3
3 Aces 7
1 Double Faults 0
52 Service Points 71
30 First Serve In 45
23 First Serve Won 33
13 Second Serve Won 17
0 Break Points Saved 2
2 Break Points Faced 2
0 Winners 0
0 Unforced Errors 0
- Average Odds -
Hard Washington · 2025-07-21

QF

Alex De Minaur #13

Brandon Nakashima #32

6-4 6-4
6 Aces 4
2 Double Faults 3
66 Service Points 56
39 First Serve In 28
26 First Serve Won 19
16 Second Serve Won 9
3 Break Points Saved 2
5 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Antwerp · 2021-10-18

R32

Brandon Nakashima #79

Alex De Minaur #26

6-4 6-0
4 Aces 2
0 Double Faults 1
54 Service Points 62
30 First Serve In 38
20 First Serve Won 22
15 Second Serve Won 8
2 Break Points Saved 5
3 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Alex De Minaur — Last 10

L W L W W L W L W W

Brandon Nakashima — Last 10

L W L W W W W L W W