ATP tennis predict — Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev

ATP Hard Beijing · QF 09:00

Predicted probability

Alex De Minaur

Australia

49.78%

Andrey Rublev

Russia

50.22%

Average Odds

1.77 / 2.03

Market probability

53.42% / 46.58%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

2107.8 Elo 2035.0

2069.8 Elo (surface) 1954.6

357 Wins 443

261 Wins (surface) 296

10 Last 15 form 10

4 Head-to-head wins 4

0.896 Dominance ratio 1.240

10 Rank 24

27.6 Age 29.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Andrey Rublev

1st Serve In %

54.2%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.6%

43.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.70

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.2%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%

35.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

55.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Andrey Rublev

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

67.4%

Break Points Converted %

30.8%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.1%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex De Minaur 4 – 4 Andrey Rublev

Hard Doha · 2025-02-17

QF

Andrey Rublev #10

Alex De Minaur #8

6-1 3-6 7-6(8)

8 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 3

93 Service Points 114

67 First Serve In 67

43 First Serve Won 43

17 Second Serve Won 23

2 Break Points Saved 8

4 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Rotterdam · 2024-02-12

QF

Alex De Minaur #11

Andrey Rublev #5

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3

10 Aces 7

4 Double Faults 4

111 Service Points 107

57 First Serve In 71

44 First Serve Won 51

28 Second Serve Won 18

5 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2024-01-15

R16

Andrey Rublev #5

Alex De Minaur #10

6-4 6-7(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-0

6 Aces 6

6 Double Faults 6

180 Service Points 161

107 First Serve In 85

72 First Serve Won 54

40 Second Serve Won 38

13 Break Points Saved 5

16 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2023-10-30

QF

Andrey Rublev #5

Alex De Minaur #13

4-6 6-3 6-1

4 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 3

79 Service Points 96

43 First Serve In 58

31 First Serve Won 37

21 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 10

4 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Rotterdam · 2023-02-13

R32

Alex De Minaur #25

Andrey Rublev #5

6-4 6-4

3 Aces 7

4 Double Faults 3

54 Service Points 69

32 First Serve In 37

28 First Serve Won 30

12 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2022-04-11

R32

Andrey Rublev #8

Alex De Minaur #25

2-6 6-1 6-4

3 Aces 1

7 Double Faults 1

96 Service Points 80

72 First Serve In 52

45 First Serve Won 33

12 Second Serve Won 12

9 Break Points Saved 3

12 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard NextGen Finals · 2018-11-05

RR

Alex De Minaur #31

Andrey Rublev #68

4-1 3-4(5) 4-1 4-2

10 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 6

72 Service Points 60

47 First Serve In 38

38 First Serve Won 26

10 Second Serve Won 5

4 Break Points Saved 8

5 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Washington · 2018-07-30

SF

Alex De Minaur #72

Andrey Rublev #46

5-7 7-6(6) 6-4

12 Aces 8

4 Double Faults 5

115 Service Points 126

67 First Serve In 80

49 First Serve Won 61

22 Second Serve Won 17

6 Break Points Saved 11

9 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Alex De Minaur — Last 10

Andrey Rublev — Last 10