ATP tennis predict — Alex De Minaur vs Alex Molcan

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 09:30

Predicted probability

Alex De Minaur

Australia

79.13%

Alex Molcan

Slovakia

20.87%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.35

Market probability

71.43% / 28.57%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2118 vs 1901) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2079 vs 1748).

Player Comparison

2117.9 Elo 1901.4

2079.1 Elo (surface) 1747.9

359 Wins 94

263 Wins (surface) 35

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.896 Dominance ratio 1.047

9 Rank 84

27.6 Age 28.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alex Molcan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Alex Molcan

1st Serve In %

55.3%

63.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.1%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.8%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.2%

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex De Minaur Alex Molcan

Break Points Saved %

69.5%

53.4%

Break Points Converted %

30.2%

38.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.1%

64.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

52.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex De Minaur 0 – 1 Alex Molcan

Clay Lyon · 2022-05-16

SF

Alex Molcan #47

Alex De Minaur #21

7-6(2) 6-2

2 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 2

67 Service Points 80

47 First Serve In 49

33 First Serve Won 33

10 Second Serve Won 7

4 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alex De Minaur vs Alex Molcan — Prediction