ATP tennis predict — Alex Bolt vs Semen Pankin

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · 1. round 05:00

Predicted probability

Alex Bolt

Australia

77.65%

Semen Pankin

Russia

22.35%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.50

Market probability

73.38% / 26.62%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Bolt is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1709 vs 1491), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1667 vs 1487) and more wins on hard courts (43 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1709.2 Elo 1490.7

1667.0 Elo (surface) 1487.4

194 Wins (Challenger) 9

150 Wins (surface) 9

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.021 Dominance ratio 0.904

183 Rank 425

33.7 Age 27.1

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Bolt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Semen Pankin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Bolt Semen Pankin

1st Serve In %

59.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.4%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

37.6%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.53

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.4%

52.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

69.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.5%

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Bolt Semen Pankin

Break Points Saved %

65.6%

—

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

51.4%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Bolt and Semen Pankin have never played each other.

Alex Bolt vs Semen Pankin — Prediction