ATP tennis predict — Alex Bolt vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Alex Bolt

Australia

43.20%

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Spain

56.80%

Average Odds

3.23 / 1.33

Market probability

29.17% / 70.83%

Why This Prediction?

Pablo Llamas Ruiz is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (40.6% vs 29.9% of return points won) and a stronger serve (69.2% vs 60.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1586.8 Elo 1579.3

1569.3 Elo (surface) 1519.5

79 Wins 34

41 Wins (surface) 9

7 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 1

0.763 Dominance ratio 1.318

164 Rank 126

33.6 Age 23.9

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Bolt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Bolt Pablo Llamas Ruiz

1st Serve In %

60.1%

65.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

55.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%

30.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.8%

49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.4%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

54.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.5%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.08

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Bolt Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Break Points Saved %

68.3%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%

38.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Bolt 1 – 1 Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Hard US Open · 2026-08-25

qualification - 1. round

Pablo Llamas Ruiz #126

Alex Bolt #164

7-6 7-5

3 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 2

61 Service Points 76

42 First Serve In 47

30 First Serve Won 37

13 Second Serve Won 17

0 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 2

22 Winners 15

26 Unforced Errors 17

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Clay Roland Garros · 2025-05-26

Q1

Pablo Llamas Ruiz #872

Alex Bolt #197

4-6 6-4 7-5

0 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 0

90 Service Points 115

64 First Serve In 83

37 First Serve Won 49

14 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 9

8 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Canberra CH · 2024-01-01

Q1

Alex Bolt #328

Pablo Llamas Ruiz #158

7-5 4-6 7-6(5)

18 Aces 8

5 Double Faults 3

106 Service Points 118

60 First Serve In 88

46 First Serve Won 62

25 Second Serve Won 15

6 Break Points Saved 7

9 Break Points Faced 10