ATP tennis predict — Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 1. round 11:15

Predicted probability

Alex Bolt

Australia

21.82%

Lloyd Harris

RSA

78.18%

Average Odds

4.89 / 1.16

Market probability

19.17% / 80.83%

Why This Prediction?

Lloyd Harris is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1907 vs 1688), a higher Elo rating (1937 vs 1726) and a stronger return game (37.2% vs 29.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1726.2 Elo 1937.1

1687.5 Elo (surface) 1906.9

81 Wins 140

43 Wins (surface) 108

7 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 1

0.779 Dominance ratio 1.156

183 Rank 125

33.8 Age 29.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Bolt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Lloyd Harris

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 15W–3L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

33 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Bolt Lloyd Harris

1st Serve In %

59.7%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.4%

73.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

58.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.1%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

37.6%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.89

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.2%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.4%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

60.0%

47.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

46.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.79

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.09

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Bolt Lloyd Harris

Break Points Saved %

65.6%

58.8%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.2%

61.4%

Break Points Converted %

52.3%

39.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Bolt 1 – 1 Lloyd Harris

Hard Jingshan challenger · 2026-10-03

SF

Lloyd Harris #125

Alex Bolt #183

5-7 7-6 0-0

11 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

38 First Serve Won 37

10 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.5

Hard Fairfield CH · 2018-10-08

QF

Alex Bolt #155

Lloyd Harris #113

6-3 6-4

4 Aces 9

2 Double Faults 1

80 Service Points 62

44 First Serve In 38

34 First Serve Won 28

18 Second Serve Won 10

8 Break Points Saved 6

8 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alex Bolt vs Lloyd Harris — Prediction