ATP tennis predict — Alex Bolt vs Evan Zhu

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · R16 05:35

Predicted probability

Alex Bolt

Australia

64.46%

Evan Zhu

USA

35.54%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.63

Market probability

64.62% / 35.38%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Bolt is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1714 vs 1612), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1673 vs 1616) and a stronger serve (67.5% vs 61.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1713.7 Elo 1611.8

1673.2 Elo (surface) 1616.4

195 Wins (Challenger) 79

151 Wins (surface) 66

8 Last 15 form 11

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.021 Dominance ratio 1.041

183 Rank 502

33.7 Age 28.1

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Bolt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Evan Zhu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Bolt Evan Zhu

1st Serve In %

59.7%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.4%

60.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.1%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

37.6%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.6%

54.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

62.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.3%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

20.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.0%

55.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Bolt Evan Zhu

Break Points Saved %

65.6%

48.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Bolt 2 – 0 Evan Zhu

Hard Jingshan CH · 2025-09-22

Q1

Alex Bolt #221

Evan Zhu #575

6-3 3-6 6-3

12 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 5

77 Service Points 110

43 First Serve In 66

36 First Serve Won 44

18 Second Serve Won 19

4 Break Points Saved 11

6 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Wuxi CH · 2025-05-05

R32

Alex Bolt #236

Evan Zhu #610

6-3 6-4

3 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 3

56 Service Points 49

31 First Serve In 28

25 First Serve Won 20

16 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 0

0 Break Points Faced 2