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Alex Bolt vs Akira Santillan — Prediction

ATP Hard Hangzhou · qualification - quarterfinal 06:05

Predicted probability

Alex Bolt

Australia

59.99%

Akira Santillan

Australia

40.01%

Average Odds

1.42  /  2.73

Market probability

65.78%  /  34.22%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Bolt is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1708 vs 1572), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1666 vs 1558) and a stronger serve (67.5% vs 63.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1708.1 Elo 1572.1
1665.8 Elo (surface) 1557.6
80 Wins 15
42 Wins (surface) 11
6 Last 15 form 5
1 Head-to-head wins 2
0.779 Dominance ratio 1.014
165 Rank 313
33.7 Age 29.3
left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Bolt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Akira Santillan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–8L · 27.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Bolt Akira Santillan

1st Serve In %

60.1%
59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%
73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%
53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%
27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.8%
44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.50
0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20
0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.4%
62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%
72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%
50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%
30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.5%
46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.59
0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14
0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Bolt Akira Santillan

Break Points Saved %

68.3%
53.6%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%
45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.3%
52.1%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%
44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Bolt 1 – 2 Akira Santillan

Hard Hangzhou · 2026-09-23

qualification - quarterfinal

Alex Bolt #165

Akira Santillan #313

6-1 2-6 6-4
8 Aces 8
0 Double Faults 5
- Service Points -
- First Serve In -
33 First Serve Won 39
15 Second Serve Won 15
2 Break Points Saved 5
4 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.4 Average Odds 2.7
Hard Seoul CH · 2019-04-29

R16

Alex Bolt #141

Akira Santillan #293

7-6(4) 6-3
10 Aces 5
3 Double Faults 5
83 Service Points 66
40 First Serve In 41
33 First Serve Won 29
22 Second Serve Won 14
4 Break Points Saved 1
4 Break Points Faced 3
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Kobe CH · 2017-11-06

QF

Akira Santillan #147

Alex Bolt #206

6-3 6-2
10 Aces 1
2 Double Faults 2
46 Service Points 50
30 First Serve In 25
27 First Serve Won 18
11 Second Serve Won 10
1 Break Points Saved 5
1 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Burnie CH · 2017-01-30

QF

Akira Santillan #207

Alex Bolt #527

6-3 4-6 6-2
6 Aces 8
3 Double Faults 7
84 Service Points 77
53 First Serve In 39
36 First Serve Won 25
20 Second Serve Won 22
3 Break Points Saved 4
5 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Alex Bolt — Last 10

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Akira Santillan — Last 10

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