ATP tennis predict — Alex Barrena vs Tomas Barrios Vera

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · 1. round 15:00

Predicted probability

Alex Barrena

Argentina

51.88%

Tomas Barrios Vera

Chile

48.12%

Average Odds

2.16 / 1.52

Market probability

41.30% / 58.70%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1726.9 Elo 1751.4

1737.5 Elo (surface) 1722.0

91 Wins (Challenger) 249

91 Wins (surface) 205

11 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.948 Dominance ratio 1.064

220 Rank 135

24.0 Age 28.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–2L · 84.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Tomas Barrios Vera

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Tomas Barrios Vera

1st Serve In %

57.9%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

41.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—

63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

64.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

36.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.15

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Tomas Barrios Vera

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

60.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.4%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Barrena and Tomas Barrios Vera have never played each other.

Alex Barrena vs Tomas Barrios Vera — Prediction