ATP tennis predict — Alex Barrena vs Timofey Skatov

Challenger Clay Hagen challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Alex Barrena

Argentina

32.78%

Timofey Skatov

Kazakhstan

67.22%

Average Odds

2.70 / 1.42

Market probability

34.47% / 65.53%

Why This Prediction?

Timofey Skatov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1646 vs 1545), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1666 vs 1576) and more wins on clay courts (126 vs 76).

Player Comparison

1545.0 Elo 1645.8

1576.3 Elo (surface) 1665.6

76 Wins (Challenger) 145

76 Wins (surface) 126

4 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.869 Dominance ratio 1.146

264 Rank 150

23.8 Age 25.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Timofey Skatov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Timofey Skatov

1st Serve In %

57.9%

67.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.9%

64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

54.2%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.8%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.8%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Timofey Skatov

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

46.8%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Barrena 0 – 1 Timofey Skatov

Clay Hagen challenger · 2026-08-03

1. round

Alex Barrena #261

Timofey Skatov #147

7-6 6-2

2 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 6

70 Service Points 61

42 First Serve In 38

30 First Serve Won 20

14 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Grass Wimbledon · 2026-06-22

qualification - 1. round

Timofey Skatov #178

Alex Barrena #247

6-3 7-6

3 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 4

65 Service Points 90

32 First Serve In 60

26 First Serve Won 37

24 Second Serve Won 16

3 Break Points Saved 10

3 Break Points Faced 11

18 Winners 20

14 Unforced Errors 35

1.2 Average Odds 4.4

Alex Barrena vs Timofey Skatov — Prediction