ATP tennis predict — Alex Barrena vs Samuele Pieri

Challenger Clay Biella challenger · R16 13:30

Predicted probability

Alex Barrena

Argentina

70.07%

Samuele Pieri

Italy

29.93%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.12

Market probability

55.94% / 44.06%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Barrena is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1657 vs 1536), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1660 vs 1569) and a stronger return game (42.1% vs 34.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1656.8 Elo 1536.5

1660.0 Elo (surface) 1569.3

84 Wins (Challenger) 17

84 Wins (surface) 17

9 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.948 Dominance ratio 0.913

216 Rank 405

23.9 Age 24.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Samuele Pieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Samuele Pieri

1st Serve In %

57.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.28

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.9%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

54.2%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.8%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.8%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

41.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Samuele Pieri

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

61.9%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

39.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Barrena 0 – 0 Samuele Pieri

Clay Biella challenger · 2026-09-17

R16

Alex Barrena #216

Samuele Pieri #405

6-1 6-3

2 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 5

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

21 First Serve Won 16

6 Second Serve Won 18

2 Break Points Saved 13

4 Break Points Faced 19

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Alex Barrena vs Samuele Pieri — Prediction