ATP tennis predict — Alex Barrena vs Maxime Chazal

Challenger Clay Biella challenger · 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Alex Barrena

Argentina

74.07%

Maxime Chazal

France

25.93%

Average Odds

1.46 / 2.58

Market probability

63.86% / 36.14%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Barrena is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1652 vs 1468), a higher Elo rating (1648 vs 1488) and more wins on clay courts (83 vs 52).

Player Comparison

1647.6 Elo 1488.2

1651.7 Elo (surface) 1467.6

83 Wins (Challenger) 63

83 Wins (surface) 52

8 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.948 Dominance ratio 1.148

216 Rank 433

23.9 Age 33.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Maxime Chazal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-06-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Maxime Chazal

1st Serve In %

57.9%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

63.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.9%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

54.2%

71.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.8%

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.8%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

59.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Maxime Chazal

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

54.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

31.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

35.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Barrena 0 – 0 Maxime Chazal

Clay Biella challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Alex Barrena #216

Maxime Chazal #433

6-4 1-6 6-3

1 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

44 First Serve Won 28

5 Second Serve Won 19

5 Break Points Saved 5

9 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Alex Barrena vs Maxime Chazal — Prediction