ATP tennis predict — Alex Barrena vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · 1. round 15:00

Predicted probability

Alex Barrena

Argentina

40.67%

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

59.33%

Average Odds

1.95 / 1.65

Market probability

45.83% / 54.17%

Why This Prediction?

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is the favorite because he has a better head-to-head record against Alex Barrena (2-1), a stronger serve (66.4% vs 55.6% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1749 vs 1738).

Player Comparison

1726.9 Elo 1726.5

1737.5 Elo (surface) 1749.3

91 Wins (Challenger) 148

91 Wins (surface) 143

11 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 2

0.948 Dominance ratio 1.247

220 Rank 270

24.0 Age 25.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–2L · 84.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

1st Serve In %

57.9%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

75.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

64.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

38.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.15

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

25.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.4%

61.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Barrena 1 – 2 Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Clay Concepcion CH · 2026-01-27

R32

Alex Barrena #190

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #297

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4

5 Aces 1

6 Double Faults 8

96 Service Points 92

46 First Serve In 49

30 First Serve Won 30

23 Second Serve Won 22

11 Break Points Saved 3

17 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Villa Maria CH · 2024-10-07

Q2

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #374

Alex Barrena #665

6-3 6-3

1 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 3

49 Service Points 76

35 First Serve In 47

26 First Serve Won 25

9 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 8

2 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Bogota CH · 2023-09-25

R16

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #342

Alex Barrena #440

6-1 6-3

4 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 8

47 Service Points 52

32 First Serve In 26

25 First Serve Won 17

10 Second Serve Won 8

2 Break Points Saved 6

2 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alex Barrena vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Alex Barrena — Last 10

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida — Last 10