ATP tennis predict — Alex Barrena vs Lukas Neumayer

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · QF 17:00

Predicted probability

Alex Barrena

Argentina

37.73%

Lukas Neumayer

Austria

62.27%

Average Odds

2.68 / 1.43

Market probability

34.79% / 65.21%

Why This Prediction?

Lukas Neumayer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1668 vs 1584), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1683 vs 1612) and a stronger serve (63.3% vs 59.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1583.8 Elo 1668.3

1611.9 Elo (surface) 1683.1

79 Wins (Challenger) 115

79 Wins (surface) 105

7 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.983 Dominance ratio 0.890

261 Rank 169

23.8 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Lukas Neumayer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Lukas Neumayer

1st Serve In %

57.9%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.9%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

54.2%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.8%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.8%

35.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

39.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Lukas Neumayer

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Barrena 0 – 0 Lukas Neumayer

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-14

QF

Alex Barrena #261

Lukas Neumayer #169

5-1

0 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 0

20 Service Points 26

12 First Serve In 18

9 First Serve Won 9

5 Second Serve Won 3

1 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Alex Barrena vs Lukas Neumayer — Prediction