ATP tennis predict — Alex Barrena vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · R16 16:30

Predicted probability

Alex Barrena

Argentina

52.71%

Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

Argentina

47.29%

Average Odds

1.51 / 2.43

Market probability

61.68% / 38.32%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1568.4 Elo 1547.1

1596.8 Elo (surface) 1565.9

78 Wins (Challenger) 65

78 Wins (surface) 64

6 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.926 Dominance ratio 0.909

261 Rank 313

23.8 Age 22.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

1st Serve In %

57.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.28

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.9%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

54.2%

62.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.8%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.8%

34.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Barrena Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

43.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Barrena 1 – 0 Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-13

R16

Alex Barrena #261

Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi #313

6-2 6-3

1 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 2

56 Service Points 55

30 First Serve In 27

19 First Serve Won 14

16 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Clay Lima CH · 2025-06-23

R32

Alex Barrena #273

Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi #346

7-5 2-0 RET

1 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 0

45 Service Points 39

33 First Serve In 31

20 First Serve Won 11

4 Second Serve Won 4

0 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alex Barrena vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi — Prediction