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Aleksandar Vukic vs Tomas Barrios Vera — Prediction

ATP Hard Montreal · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

66.93%

Tomas Barrios Vera

Chile

33.07%

Average Odds

1.43  /  2.71

Market probability

65.46%  /  34.54%

Why This Prediction?

Aleksandar Vukic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1761 vs 1593), more wins on hard courts (79 vs 12) and a stronger serve (65.8% vs 61.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1706.5 Elo 1673.6
1760.7 Elo (surface) 1593.2
118 Wins 50
79 Wins (surface) 12
7 Last 15 form 7
0 Head-to-head wins 3
1.275 Dominance ratio 1.061
105 Rank 138
30.3 Age 28.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aleksandar Vukic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Tomas Barrios Vera

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Vukic Tomas Barrios Vera

1st Serve In %

62.0%
65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%
64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%
49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%
27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%
41.5%

Aces per Service Game

1.06
0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20
0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%
63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.0%
64.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%
54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%
36.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%
46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.56
0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13
0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Vukic Tomas Barrios Vera

Break Points Saved %

65.8%
60.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%
35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.9%
62.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%
42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aleksandar Vukic 0 – 3 Tomas Barrios Vera

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-01

qualification - 1. round

Aleksandar Vukic #105

Tomas Barrios Vera #138

7-6 6-2
10 Aces 3
0 Double Faults 1
68 Service Points 80
37 First Serve In 42
30 First Serve Won 26
16 Second Serve Won 16
4 Break Points Saved 10
6 Break Points Faced 14
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.4 Average Odds 2.7
Hard Miami Masters · 2026-03-18

Q2

Tomas Barrios Vera #119

Aleksandar Vukic #93

6-3 7-6(5)
4 Aces 8
1 Double Faults 3
67 Service Points 82
54 First Serve In 48
36 First Serve Won 29
6 Second Serve Won 17
1 Break Points Saved 7
2 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Traralgon CH · 2019-10-21

R32

Tomas Barrios Vera #323

Aleksandar Vukic #253

6-1 3-6 6-3
6 Aces 11
1 Double Faults 3
69 Service Points 63
46 First Serve In 35
38 First Serve Won 26
13 Second Serve Won 15
1 Break Points Saved 3
2 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Blois CH · 2018-06-18

Q2

Tomas Barrios Vera #370

Aleksandar Vukic #451

6-3 6-2
1 Aces 2
3 Double Faults 3
57 Service Points 70
34 First Serve In 34
21 First Serve Won 19
14 Second Serve Won 13
2 Break Points Saved 9
4 Break Points Faced 14
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Aleksandar Vukic — Last 10

L L L W W L L W L W

Tomas Barrios Vera — Last 10

L W W W L L L L L L