ATP tennis predict — Aleksandar Vukic vs Rei Sakamoto

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

33.87%

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

66.13%

Average Odds

2.35 / 1.60

Market probability

40.51% / 59.49%

Why This Prediction?

Rei Sakamoto is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1719 vs 1704) and better recent form (10 wins in his last 15 matches vs 8).

Player Comparison

1703.8 Elo 1719.2

1731.7 Elo (surface) 1651.9

120 Wins 17

81 Wins (surface) 13

8 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.541 Dominance ratio 0.976

95 Rank 157

30.4 Age 20.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aleksandar Vukic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Vukic Rei Sakamoto

1st Serve In %

62.0%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

21.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

1.06

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.0%

75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Vukic Rei Sakamoto

Break Points Saved %

65.8%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.9%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aleksandar Vukic 1 – 0 Rei Sakamoto

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Rei Sakamoto #157

Aleksandar Vukic #96

6-4 6-7 6-4 3-6 6-4

22 Aces 38

5 Double Faults 3

147 Service Points 149

85 First Serve In 105

71 First Serve Won 83

30 Second Serve Won 25

5 Break Points Saved 0

8 Break Points Faced 2

50 Winners 76

29 Unforced Errors 34

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Tokyo · 2025-09-24

Q2

Aleksandar Vukic #95

Rei Sakamoto #190

6-4 7-6(5)

10 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 3

80 Service Points 66

40 First Serve In 43

34 First Serve Won 35

20 Second Serve Won 13

4 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Aleksandar Vukic vs Rei Sakamoto — Prediction