ATP tennis predict — Aleksandar Vukic vs Nicolas Arseneault

Challenger Hard Granby challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

72.94%

Nicolas Arseneault

Canada

27.06%

Average Odds

1.22 / 3.95

Market probability

76.40% / 23.60%

Why This Prediction?

Aleksandar Vukic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1653 vs 1499), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1722 vs 1494) and more wins on hard courts (76 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1653.3 Elo 1498.5

1721.8 Elo (surface) 1494.2

154 Wins (Challenger) 9

109 Wins (surface) 9

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.031 Dominance ratio 0.954

113 Rank 780

30.3 Age 19.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aleksandar Vukic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Nicolas Arseneault

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Vukic Nicolas Arseneault

1st Serve In %

62.0%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

43.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

19.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

1.06

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.0%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

52.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Vukic Nicolas Arseneault

Break Points Saved %

65.8%

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.9%

51.1%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

37.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aleksandar Vukic 0 – 0 Nicolas Arseneault

Hard Granby challenger · 2026-07-16

R16

Aleksandar Vukic #113

Nicolas Arseneault #780

6-3 6-3

12 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 4

48 Service Points 53

30 First Serve In 23

29 First Serve Won 15

7 Second Serve Won 16

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Aleksandar Vukic vs Nicolas Arseneault — Prediction