ATP tennis predict — Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti

ATP Hard Washington · R16

Predicted probability

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

51.25%

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

48.75%

Average Odds

3.00 / 1.39

Market probability

31.66% / 68.34%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1713.3 Elo 1836.4

1776.7 Elo (surface) 1651.0

118 Wins 209

79 Wins (surface) 101

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.207 Dominance ratio 0.843

105 Rank 15

30.3 Age 24.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aleksandar Vukic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Lorenzo Musetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Vukic Lorenzo Musetti

1st Serve In %

62.0%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

1.06

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.0%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Vukic Lorenzo Musetti

Break Points Saved %

65.8%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.9%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

49.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aleksandar Vukic 0 – 1 Lorenzo Musetti

Hard Washington · 2026-07-29

R16

Lorenzo Musetti #15

Aleksandar Vukic #105

6-3 5-7 6-3

8 Aces 8

2 Double Faults 3

104 Service Points 86

59 First Serve In 47

35 First Serve Won 36

26 Second Serve Won 20

11 Break Points Saved 5

16 Break Points Faced 8

29 Winners 21

59 Unforced Errors 34

1.4 Average Odds 3

Hard Pune · 2022-01-31

R16

Lorenzo Musetti #66

Aleksandar Vukic #140

7-6(3) 3-6 6-3

9 Aces 9

2 Double Faults 1

92 Service Points 92

57 First Serve In 60

44 First Serve Won 43

22 Second Serve Won 22

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti — Prediction