ATP tennis predict — Aleksandar Vukic vs Hayato Matsuoka

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · 1. round 05:05

Predicted probability

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

65.32%

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

34.68%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.11

Market probability

55.82% / 44.18%

Why This Prediction?

Aleksandar Vukic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1778 vs 1668), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1757 vs 1652) and more wins on hard courts (82 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1778.2 Elo 1668.0

1756.8 Elo (surface) 1651.6

160 Wins (Challenger) 46

115 Wins (surface) 45

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.085 Dominance ratio 0.769

115 Rank 247

30.5 Age 21.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aleksandar Vukic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Vukic Hayato Matsuoka

1st Serve In %

61.6%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

79.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.97

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.5%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.5%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.1%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

22.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Vukic Hayato Matsuoka

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

34.8%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.4%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

33.9%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aleksandar Vukic and Hayato Matsuoka have never played each other.

Aleksandar Vukic vs Hayato Matsuoka — Prediction