ATP tennis predict — Aleksandar Vukic vs Alex Bolt

ATP Hard Washington · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

70.22%

Alex Bolt

Australia

29.78%

Average Odds

1.45 / 2.63

Market probability

64.46% / 35.54%

Why This Prediction?

Aleksandar Vukic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1760 vs 1588), a higher Elo rating (1695 vs 1604) and a stronger return game (36.3% vs 31.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1694.9 Elo 1604.3

1760.3 Elo (surface) 1587.7

116 Wins 79

77 Wins (surface) 41

6 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.970 Dominance ratio 0.851

102 Rank 167

30.3 Age 33.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aleksandar Vukic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alex Bolt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Vukic Alex Bolt

1st Serve In %

62.0%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

39.8%

Aces per Service Game

1.06

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.0%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

56.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

42.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Vukic Alex Bolt

Break Points Saved %

65.8%

68.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

35.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.9%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

44.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aleksandar Vukic 1 – 0 Alex Bolt

Hard Washington · 2026-07-26

qualification - round of 16

Aleksandar Vukic #172

Alex Bolt #113

6-0 6-1

6 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 4

29 Service Points 47

21 First Serve In 26

19 First Serve Won 13

5 Second Serve Won 5

0 Break Points Saved 6

0 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Hard Columbus CH · 2021-09-20

QF

Aleksandar Vukic #214

Alex Bolt #147

7-5 6-4

7 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 2

61 Service Points 71

37 First Serve In 51

32 First Serve Won 34

14 Second Serve Won 9

4 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Aleksandar Vukic vs Alex Bolt — Prediction