ATP tennis predict — Aleksandar Tolev vs Sebastian Gima

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · qualification - 1. round 09:00

Predicted probability

Aleksandar Tolev

Bulgaria

62.12%

Sebastian Gima

Romania

37.88%

Average Odds

7.39 / 1.07

Market probability

12.65% / 87.35%

Why This Prediction?

Aleksandar Tolev is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (43.7% vs 36.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1396.1 Elo 1456.5

1384.6 Elo (surface) 1499.8

1 Wins (Challenger) 35

1 Wins (surface) 32

1 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.897 Dominance ratio 0.806

1608 Rank 590

None Age 24.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aleksandar Tolev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Sebastian Gima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Tolev Sebastian Gima

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

57.9%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.9%

56.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.1%

40.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.7%

45.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.14

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Tolev Sebastian Gima

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

43.2%

44.0%

Break Points Converted %

53.7%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aleksandar Tolev 0 – 0 Sebastian Gima

Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · 2026-09-20

qualification - 1. round

Sebastian Gima #605

Aleksandar Tolev #1611

6-1 6-3

0 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

15 First Serve Won 22

9 Second Serve Won 9

2 Break Points Saved 1

7 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 7.4

Aleksandar Tolev vs Sebastian Gima — Prediction