ATP tennis predict — Aleksandar Tolev vs Samir Hamza Reguig

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · qualification - 1. round 16:00

Predicted probability

Aleksandar Tolev

Bulgaria

37.00%

Samir Hamza Reguig

Algeria

63.00%

Average Odds

3.92 / 1.22

Market probability

23.74% / 76.26%

Why This Prediction?

Samir Hamza Reguig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1560 vs 1332), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1492 vs 1330) and better recent form (5 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1331.6 Elo 1559.9

1329.7 Elo (surface) 1492.2

0 Wins (Challenger) 5

0 Wins (surface) 3

0 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.951 Dominance ratio 0.809

1748 Rank 672

None Age 24.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aleksandar Tolev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Samir Hamza Reguig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Tolev Samir Hamza Reguig

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

57.9%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.9%

61.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.1%

43.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.7%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.51

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Tolev Samir Hamza Reguig

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

43.2%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

53.7%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aleksandar Tolev 0 – 0 Samir Hamza Reguig

Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 2026-08-30

qualification - 1. round

Aleksandar Tolev #1759

Samir Hamza Reguig #682

6-3 5-7 6-4

4 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 7

95 Service Points 116

59 First Serve In 65

39 First Serve Won 41

18 Second Serve Won 23

1 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.9 Average Odds 1.2

Aleksandar Tolev vs Samir Hamza Reguig — Prediction