ATP tennis predict — Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Aleksandar Kovacevic

USA

40.12%

Nuno Borges

Portugal

59.88%

Average Odds

2.77 / 1.44

Market probability

34.20% / 65.80%

Why This Prediction?

Nuno Borges is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1767 vs 1683), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1711 vs 1634) and a stronger return game (39.1% vs 34.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1682.5 Elo 1767.0

1633.6 Elo (surface) 1710.6

80 Wins 105

60 Wins (surface) 56

6 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.135 Dominance ratio 1.176

95 Rank 49

27.9 Age 29.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Nuno Borges

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Kovacevic Nuno Borges

1st Serve In %

55.8%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.4%

78.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.7%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.4%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.74

0.66

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.9%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.7%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.1%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Kovacevic Nuno Borges

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

56.1%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

66.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aleksandar Kovacevic 1 – 0 Nuno Borges

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Nuno Borges #55

Aleksandar Kovacevic #95

6-7 6-2 6-4

4 Aces 16

7 Double Faults 4

105 Service Points 93

50 First Serve In 63

37 First Serve Won 49

26 Second Serve Won 18

4 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 5

21 Winners 38

45 Unforced Errors 37

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Hard Shenzhen CH · 2023-10-09

F

Aleksandar Kovacevic #146

Nuno Borges #85

7-6(4) 7-6(5)

5 Aces 14

4 Double Faults 4

74 Service Points 81

42 First Serve In 53

32 First Serve Won 40

18 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 6

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges — Prediction