ATP tennis predict — Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Matteo Berrettini

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Aleksandar Kovacevic

USA

29.92%

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

70.08%

Average Odds

2.84 / 1.41

Market probability

33.18% / 66.82%

Why This Prediction?

Matteo Berrettini is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1986 vs 1799), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1928 vs 1778) and a stronger serve (67.9% vs 64.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1799.4 Elo 1986.2

1778.1 Elo (surface) 1927.7

85 Wins 242

65 Wins (surface) 117

5 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.864 Dominance ratio 1.014

81 Rank 46

28.1 Age 30.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Matteo Berrettini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Kovacevic Matteo Berrettini

1st Serve In %

53.8%

66.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.4%

76.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

18.8%

21.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.9%

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.9%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.7%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.1%

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Kovacevic Matteo Berrettini

Break Points Saved %

59.3%

76.0%

Break Points Converted %

16.7%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

55.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aleksandar Kovacevic and Matteo Berrettini have never played each other.

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Matteo Berrettini — Prediction