ATP tennis predict — Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Karen Khachanov

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 03:25

Predicted probability

Aleksandar Kovacevic

USA

30.95%

Karen Khachanov

Russia

69.05%

Average Odds

2.97 / 1.39

Market probability

31.88% / 68.12%

Why This Prediction?

Karen Khachanov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1781 vs 1624), a higher Elo rating (1780 vs 1674) and more wins on hard courts (217 vs 60).

Player Comparison

1673.6 Elo 1780.4

1623.6 Elo (surface) 1781.1

80 Wins 342

60 Wins (surface) 217

5 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.136 Dominance ratio 1.156

95 Rank 39

28.0 Age 30.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Karen Khachanov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Kovacevic Karen Khachanov

1st Serve In %

55.8%

57.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.4%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

47.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.7%

22.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.4%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.74

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.9%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.7%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.1%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aleksandar Kovacevic Karen Khachanov

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

64.8%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

68.1%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

33.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aleksandar Kovacevic 0 – 1 Karen Khachanov

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-15

1. round

Aleksandar Kovacevic #95

Karen Khachanov #39

5-7 6-3 7-6

10 Aces 16

2 Double Faults 4

100 Service Points 105

52 First Serve In 59

44 First Serve Won 44

30 Second Serve Won 27

7 Break Points Saved 10

8 Break Points Faced 11

46 Winners 35

33 Unforced Errors 37

3.0 Average Odds 1.4

Hard Australian Open · 2024-01-15

R64

Karen Khachanov #15

Aleksandar Kovacevic #101

6-4 6-3 4-6 6-3

22 Aces 16

0 Double Faults 5

103 Service Points 114

68 First Serve In 65

51 First Serve Won 46

22 Second Serve Won 22

7 Break Points Saved 6

10 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Karen Khachanov — Prediction