ATP tennis predict — Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Jacob Fearnley

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · 1. round 15:00

Predicted probability

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Spain

21.72%

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

78.28%

Average Odds

- / -

Market probability

- / -

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1889 vs 1591), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1795 vs 1606) and a stronger return game (41.6% vs 36.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1591.0 Elo 1889.0

1606.0 Elo (surface) 1794.9

33 Wins (Challenger) 57

12 Wins (surface) 40

7 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.958 Dominance ratio 1.139

370 Rank 94

21.3 Age 25.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejo Sanchez Quilez Jacob Fearnley

1st Serve In %

65.6%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.5%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

36.0%

55.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.10

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.1%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejo Sanchez Quilez Jacob Fearnley

Break Points Saved %

33.3%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

47.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.5%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alejo Sanchez Quilez and Jacob Fearnley have never played each other.

Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Jacob Fearnley — Prediction