ATP tennis predict — Alejandro Tabilo vs Tommy Paul

ATP Hard Tokyo · 1. round 03:00

Predicted probability

Alejandro Tabilo

Chile

32.59%

Tommy Paul

USA

67.41%

Average Odds

3.42 / 1.30

Market probability

27.54% / 72.46%

Why This Prediction?

Tommy Paul is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2016 vs 1876), a higher Elo rating (2110 vs 1962) and more wins on hard courts (195 vs 67).

Player Comparison

1961.9 Elo 2110.1

1876.0 Elo (surface) 2016.3

137 Wins 288

67 Wins (surface) 195

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 2

0.821 Dominance ratio 0.920

31 Rank 16

29.3 Age 29.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alejandro Tabilo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Tommy Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Tabilo Tommy Paul

1st Serve In %

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.2%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

19.5%

26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.4%

45.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.4%

74.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Tabilo Tommy Paul

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

32.6%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.0%

62.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.7%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Tabilo 0 – 2 Tommy Paul

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2024-10-02

R32

Tommy Paul #13

Alejandro Tabilo #23

6-7(2) 7-6(6) 6-2

13 Aces 11

1 Double Faults 2

109 Service Points 124

71 First Serve In 87

52 First Serve Won 61

20 Second Serve Won 15

1 Break Points Saved 9

3 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Queen's Club · 2024-06-17

R16

Tommy Paul #13

Alejandro Tabilo #24

6-3 6-4

10 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 1

53 Service Points 63

36 First Serve In 41

31 First Serve Won 30

13 Second Serve Won 9

2 Break Points Saved 8

2 Break Points Faced 10