ATP tennis predict — Alejandro Tabilo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

ATP Clay Bastad · QF

Predicted probability

Alejandro Tabilo

Chile

56.89%

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Argentina

43.11%

Average Odds

1.73 / 2.10

Market probability

54.83% / 45.17%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Tabilo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1795 vs 1723), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1820 vs 1752) and a stronger return game (42.0% vs 33.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1795.3 Elo 1723.4

1820.1 Elo (surface) 1752.4

130 Wins 60

57 Wins (surface) 34

7 Last 15 form 10

3 Head-to-head wins 1

0.958 Dominance ratio 0.896

31 Rank 61

29.1 Age 25.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alejandro Tabilo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Tabilo Thiago Agustin Tirante

1st Serve In %

59.4%

55.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

76.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

57.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.5%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.3%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.4%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.68

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Tabilo Thiago Agustin Tirante

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

69.4%

Break Points Converted %

32.6%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.0%

54.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.7%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Tabilo 3 – 1 Thiago Agustin Tirante

Clay Bastad · 2026-07-17

QF

Alejandro Tabilo #31

Thiago Agustin Tirante #61

-

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Clay Santiago · 2026-02-23

R16

Alejandro Tabilo #42

Thiago Agustin Tirante #76

4-6 6-3 6-3

7 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 5

73 Service Points 94

45 First Serve In 58

33 First Serve Won 40

19 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 8

3 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Rio de Janeiro · 2026-02-16

QF

Alejandro Tabilo #68

Thiago Agustin Tirante #92

7-6(2) 6-7(6) 6-1

7 Aces 12

3 Double Faults 1

97 Service Points 106

65 First Serve In 64

53 First Serve Won 44

17 Second Serve Won 21

0 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cancun CH · 2025-08-12

R16

Thiago Agustin Tirante #135

Alejandro Tabilo #103

6-2 6-4

5 Aces 5

4 Double Faults 1

54 Service Points 52

29 First Serve In 28

24 First Serve Won 20

13 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Cordoba · 2022-01-31

Q2

Alejandro Tabilo #144

Thiago Agustin Tirante #233

6-3 6-4

9 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 0

58 Service Points 60

38 First Serve In 39

34 First Serve Won 25

8 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 5

0 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alejandro Tabilo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Tabilo — Last 10

Thiago Agustin Tirante — Last 10