ATP tennis predict — Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Alejandro Tabilo

Chile

58.31%

Pablo Carreno Busta

Spain

41.69%

Average Odds

1.57 / 2.37

Market probability

60.15% / 39.85%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Tabilo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1965 vs 1922), a stronger serve (64.1% vs 58.3% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1885 vs 1843).

Player Comparison

1965.2 Elo 1921.8

1884.7 Elo (surface) 1842.8

138 Wins 338

68 Wins (surface) 188

7 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 2

0.821 Dominance ratio 0.904

30 Rank 65

29.4 Age 35.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alejandro Tabilo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Tabilo Pablo Carreno Busta

1st Serve In %

60.1%

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

64.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

19.7%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.4%

56.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.4%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

38.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Tabilo Pablo Carreno Busta

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.0%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.7%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Tabilo 1 – 2 Pablo Carreno Busta

Clay Rome Masters · 2026-05-06

R128

Alejandro Tabilo #35

Pablo Carreno Busta #91

6-2 6-1

0 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 1

41 Service Points 56

26 First Serve In 46

23 First Serve Won 23

9 Second Serve Won 5

0 Break Points Saved 10

0 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Olbia CH · 2025-10-13

QF

Pablo Carreno Busta #104

Alejandro Tabilo #73

6-3 1-6 7-6(3)

1 Aces 8

1 Double Faults 1

95 Service Points 84

67 First Serve In 56

40 First Serve Won 41

15 Second Serve Won 15

4 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Atp Cup · 2022-01-03

RR

Pablo Carreno Busta #20

Alejandro Tabilo #139

6-4 7-6(4)

1 Aces 6

6 Double Faults 6

71 Service Points 81

43 First Serve In 52

32 First Serve Won 34

13 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Tabilo — Last 10

Pablo Carreno Busta — Last 10