ATP tennis predict — Alejandro Tabilo vs Lautaro Midon

ATP Clay Bastad · R16

Predicted probability

Alejandro Tabilo

Chile

62.21%

Lautaro Midon

Argentina

37.79%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.61

Market probability

73.82% / 26.18%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Tabilo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1811 vs 1701), a higher Elo rating (1787 vs 1691) and more wins on clay courts (110 vs 66).

Player Comparison

1787.5 Elo 1691.1

1810.8 Elo (surface) 1700.9

129 Wins 5

56 Wins (surface) 5

7 Last 15 form 5

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.947 Dominance ratio 0.963

31 Rank 213

29.1 Age 22.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alejandro Tabilo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Lautaro Midon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Tabilo Lautaro Midon

1st Serve In %

59.4%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.5%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.3%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.4%

64.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Tabilo Lautaro Midon

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

32.6%

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.0%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.7%

41.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Tabilo 1 – 0 Lautaro Midon

Clay Bastad · 2026-07-16

R16

Alejandro Tabilo #31

Lautaro Midon #213

6-4 6-7 6-4

5 Aces 13

3 Double Faults 1

113 Service Points 110

68 First Serve In 58

52 First Serve Won 41

19 Second Serve Won 25

6 Break Points Saved 7

9 Break Points Faced 12

35 Winners 40

48 Unforced Errors 50

1.3 Average Odds 3.6

Clay Concepcion CH · 2026-01-27

QF

Alejandro Tabilo #79

Lautaro Midon #232

5-7 6-1 6-2

1 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 6

74 Service Points 79

50 First Serve In 52

37 First Serve Won 32

9 Second Serve Won 8

0 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alejandro Tabilo vs Lautaro Midon — Prediction