ATP tennis predict — Alejandro Tabilo vs Ben Shelton

ATP Hard Washington · QF

Predicted probability

Alejandro Tabilo

Chile

23.87%

Ben Shelton

USA

76.13%

Average Odds

3.65 / 1.28

Market probability

25.96% / 74.04%

Why This Prediction?

Ben Shelton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1902 vs 1795), a stronger serve (70.7% vs 61.7% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1805 vs 1765).

Player Comparison

1795.4 Elo 1902.2

1765.2 Elo (surface) 1804.6

133 Wins 139

63 Wins (surface) 95

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.812 Dominance ratio 1.031

30 Rank 8

29.2 Age 23.8

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alejandro Tabilo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Tabilo Ben Shelton

1st Serve In %

59.4%

66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

75.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

57.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.5%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.3%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.4%

75.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Tabilo Ben Shelton

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

32.6%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.0%

74.1%

Break Points Converted %

43.7%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Tabilo 0 – 0 Ben Shelton

Hard Washington · 2026-08-01

QF

Alejandro Tabilo #30

Ben Shelton #8

4-6 7-5 6-4

6 Aces 5

4 Double Faults 3

92 Service Points 88

56 First Serve In 55

45 First Serve Won 43

16 Second Serve Won 15

4 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 6

24 Winners 17

46 Unforced Errors 46

3.6 Average Odds 1.3

Alejandro Tabilo vs Ben Shelton — Prediction