ATP tennis predict — Alejandro Tabilo vs Adrian Mannarino

ATP Hard Chengdu · R16 08:35

Predicted probability

Alejandro Tabilo

Chile

74.54%

Adrian Mannarino

France

25.46%

Average Odds

1.54 / 2.44

Market probability

61.31% / 38.69%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Tabilo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1977 vs 1815), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1896 vs 1784) and a stronger serve (64.1% vs 60.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1977.1 Elo 1815.2

1896.2 Elo (surface) 1784.3

137 Wins 414

67 Wins (surface) 282

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.821 Dominance ratio 0.898

32 Rank 78

29.3 Age 38.2

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alejandro Tabilo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Adrian Mannarino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Tabilo Adrian Mannarino

1st Serve In %

59.4%

54.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.5%

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.3%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.4%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Tabilo Adrian Mannarino

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

32.6%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.0%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

43.7%

47.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Tabilo and Adrian Mannarino have never played each other.

Alejandro Tabilo vs Adrian Mannarino — Prediction