ATP tennis predict — Alejandro Moro Canas vs Massimo Giunta

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Alejandro Moro Canas

Spain

67.82%

Massimo Giunta

Italy

32.18%

Average Odds

1.60 / 2.24

Market probability

58.33% / 41.67%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Moro Canas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1623 vs 1437), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1628 vs 1504) and a stronger return game (39.2% vs 34.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1623.1 Elo 1436.5

1628.1 Elo (surface) 1504.1

113 Wins (Challenger) 12

54 Wins (surface) 10

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.993 Dominance ratio 1.272

222 Rank 425

25.6 Age 22.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alejandro Moro Canas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Massimo Giunta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Moro Canas Massimo Giunta

1st Serve In %

66.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.30

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.9%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

75.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.2%

57.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.5%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.4%

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Moro Canas Massimo Giunta

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.3%

73.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

52.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Moro Canas 0 – 0 Massimo Giunta

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-21

1. round

Alejandro Moro Canas #222

Massimo Giunta #425

7-6 5-7 6-4

10 Aces 10

3 Double Faults 1

98 Service Points 121

68 First Serve In 88

56 First Serve Won 63

18 Second Serve Won 17

3 Break Points Saved 10

4 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Alejandro Moro Canas vs Massimo Giunta — Prediction