ATP tennis predict — Alejandro Moro Canas vs Jay Clarke

Challenger Clay Biella challenger · SF 15:00

Predicted probability

Alejandro Moro Canas

Spain

60.85%

Jay Clarke

Great Britain

39.15%

Average Odds

1.70 / 2.07

Market probability

54.91% / 45.09%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Moro Canas is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (64.1% vs 57.6% of service points won), a higher Elo rating (1729 vs 1673) and more wins on clay courts (7 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1729.3 Elo 1673.5

1701.4 Elo (surface) 1671.3

123 Wins (Challenger) 162

64 Wins (surface) 60

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.129 Dominance ratio 0.902

240 Rank 232

25.8 Age 28.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alejandro Moro Canas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jay Clarke

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Moro Canas Jay Clarke

1st Serve In %

66.4%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.3%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.8%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.9%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

62.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.2%

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.5%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.4%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Moro Canas Jay Clarke

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

63.7%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.3%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

44.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Moro Canas 0 – 0 Jay Clarke

Clay Biella challenger · 2026-09-19

SF

Alejandro Moro Canas #240

Jay Clarke #232

6-3 4-6 6-2

3 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

39 First Serve Won 38

17 Second Serve Won 14

10 Break Points Saved 8

13 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Alejandro Moro Canas vs Jay Clarke — Prediction