ATP tennis predict — Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Matteo Berrettini

ATP Hard Tokyo · 1. round 03:00

Predicted probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Spain

56.32%

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

43.68%

Average Odds

1.65 / 2.19

Market probability

57.03% / 42.97%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2047 vs 1987), a stronger return game (46.9% vs 38.3% of return points won) and fewer double faults per game (0.09 vs 0.10).

Player Comparison

2046.7 Elo 1986.9

1969.8 Elo (surface) 1932.7

209 Wins 241

115 Wins (surface) 116

12 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 1

0.927 Dominance ratio 1.014

28 Rank 47

27.3 Age 30.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Matteo Berrettini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Matteo Berrettini

1st Serve In %

65.4%

65.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

54.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.3%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.3%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.9%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.1%

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Matteo Berrettini

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

72.7%

Break Points Converted %

32.8%

47.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.7%

55.3%

Break Points Converted %

50.5%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1 – 1 Matteo Berrettini

Hard Us Open · 2022-08-29

R16

Matteo Berrettini #14

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #39

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3 4-6 6-2

18 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 6

135 Service Points 146

73 First Serve In 97

61 First Serve Won 67

34 Second Serve Won 26

9 Break Points Saved 4

13 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2021-04-12

R32

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #58

Matteo Berrettini #10

7-5 6-3

1 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 3

59 Service Points 72

46 First Serve In 39

36 First Serve Won 22

7 Second Serve Won 18

2 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 6