ATP tennis predict — Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

ATP Hard Chengdu · R16 07:10

Predicted probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Spain

59.16%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Argentina

40.84%

Average Odds

1.59 / 2.33

Market probability

59.44% / 40.56%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2031 vs 1937), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1949 vs 1788) and more wins on hard courts (112 vs 17).

Player Comparison

2030.8 Elo 1937.4

1949.1 Elo (surface) 1787.7

206 Wins 84

112 Wins (surface) 17

10 Last 15 form 9

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.927 Dominance ratio 1.176

29 Rank 53

27.3 Age 24.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Juan Manuel Cerundolo

1st Serve In %

65.6%

55.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.7%

76.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.1%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.3%

57.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.3%

74.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.9%

36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.1%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

31.4%

43.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.7%

69.1%

Break Points Converted %

50.5%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2 – 0 Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Grass Wimbledon · 2026-06-29

1. round

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #23

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #42

6-4 6-4 7-6

0 Aces 12

0 Double Faults 5

97 Service Points 107

60 First Serve In 58

45 First Serve Won 35

18 Second Serve Won 23

2 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 12

41 Winners 31

25 Unforced Errors 23

1.2 Average Odds 4.1

Hard Us Open · 2023-08-28

R64

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #21

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #93

6-1 6-4 6-3

7 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 2

68 Service Points 87

50 First Serve In 47

37 First Serve Won 25

12 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo — Prediction